Associate professor David Fletcher

Office: Science III, room 219
Phone: 479-7762

Project/Thesis Possibilities

I would consider supervising any projects in the area of statistical ecology or matrix population modelling for 4th year, MSc or PhD students.

Research Interests

• Matrix population models
• Mark-recapture methods
• Modelling zero-inflated data
• Overdispersion
• Model-averaging

My research work arises from collaboration with ecologists, particularly those working in conservation biology and marine science. The emphasis in much of my work is in providing new methods of analysis that are readily understood by other scientists. You can see a schools-video with an example of the work I do here.

Recent Conference Talks and Seminars

• Assessing population trends. Department of Zoology, Otago University, October 2009. 
• Combining information from sites or times: how simple can it be? Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Otago University, August 2009 (joint work with Philip Dixon).
• A new method for estimating overdispersion. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Otago University, April 2009 (joint work with Peter Green and Byron Morgan).
• Assessing population trends. Ecology Centre, University of Queensland, January 2009.
• Weighted regression: when can we ignore the weights? Department of Statistics, Auckland University, September 2008.
• Adult survival and capture heterogeneity. International Statistical Ecology Conference, University of St. Andrews, July 2008 (joint work with Jean-Dominique Lebreton, Olivier Gimenez and Michael Schaub).
• Why most weighted regressions are wrong. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Otago University, July 2008.
• Profile likelihood intervals for predictions from a zero-inflated model. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Otago University, October 2007 (joint work with Malcolm Faddy).
• Statistics and Mathematics. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Otago University, May 2007. 
• Confidence intervals for expected abundance of rare species. New Zealand Statistical Association Conference, Christchurch, July 2007.

Publications

• David Fletcher. Statistical Ecology. In International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science (Springer 2010; in press).
• Sam McKechnie, David Fletcher, Jamie Newman, Darren Scott, Corey Bragg and Henrik Moller. Modelling the intensity of harvesting of Sooty Shearwater chicks by Rakiura Māori in New Zealand. Journal of Wildlife Management (2010; in press).
• Simon Childerhouse, Steve Dawson, David Fletcher, Liz Slooten and Louise Chilvers. 2010. Growth and reproduction of female New Zealand sea lions. Journal of Mammalogy 91:165–176.
• Simon Childerhouse, Steve Dawson, Liz Slooten, David Fletcher and Ian Wilkinson. Age distribution of lactating New Zealand sea lions: inter-annual and inter-site variation. Marine Mammal Science 26: 123–139 (2010).
• Ari Samaranayaka and David Fletcher. Modelling environmental stochasticity in adult survival for a long-lived species. Ecological Modelling 221: 423–427 (2010). 
• Kristin Charleton, Corey Bragg, Ben Knight, David Fletcher, Henrik Moller, Jamie Newman and Darren Scott. Spatial variation in burrow entrance density of the sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus). Notornis 56: 1-10 (2009).
• Sam McKechnie, Corey Bragg, Jamie Newman, Darren Scott, David Fletcher, and Henrik Moller. Assessing the monitoring of sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) abundance in southern New Zealand. Wildlife Research 36: 541–552 (2009). 
• David Fletcher and Murray Efford. Effect of senescence on estimation of survival probability when age is unknown. In Modeling Demographic Processes in Marked Populations. Series: Environmental and Ecological Statistics, Volume 3. Edited by David Thomson, Evan Cooch and Mike Conroy. Springer, New York (2009). 
• Jamie Newman, David Fletcher, Henrik Moller, Corey Bragg, Darren Scott and Sam McKechnie. Estimates of productivity and detection probabilities of breeding attempts in the sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus), a burrow-nesting petrel. Wildlife Research 36: 159–168 (2009). 
• Corey Bragg, Sam McKechnie, Jamie Newman, David Fletcher, Henrik Moller, and Darren Scott. Variation in abundance and harvest of sooty shearwaters by Rakiura Māori on Putauhinu Island. New Zealand Journal of Zoology 36: 275-289 (2009). 
• Henrik Moller, David Fletcher, P. Johnson, B. Bell, D. Flack, Corey Bragg, Darren Scott, Jamie Newman, Sam Mckechnie and Phil Lyver. Changes in sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) abundance and harvesting on the Rakiura Tītī Islands. New Zealand Journal of Zoology 36: 325-341 (2009). 
• Henrik Moller, Philip O’B Lyver, Corey Bragg, Jamie Newman, Rosemary Clucas, David Fletcher, Jane Kitson, Sam McKechnie, Darren Scott and Rakiura Titi Islands Administering Body. Guidelines for cross-cultural Participatory Action Research partnerships: a case study of a customary seabird harvest in New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Zoology 36: 211-241 (2009). 
• Jamie Newman, Darren Scott, Corey Bragg, Sam McKechnie, Henrik Moller and David Fletcher. Estimating regional population size and annual harvest intensity of the sooty shearwater in New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Zoology 36: 307-323 (2009). 
• Darren Scott, Henrik Moller, David Fletcher, Jamie Newman, Jagannath Aryal, Corey Bragg and Kristin Charleton. Predictive habitat modelling to estimate petrel breeding colony sizes: Sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) and mottled petrels (Pterodroma inexpectata) on Whenua Hou Island. New Zealand Journal of Zoology 36: 291-306 (2009). 
• David Fletcher. Confidence intervals for the mean of the delta-lognormal distribution. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15: 175–189 (2008). 
• Rosemary Clucas, David Fletcher and Henrik Moller. Estimates of adult survival rate for three colonies of Sooty Shearwater (Puffinus griseus) in New Zealand. Emu 108: 237–250 (2008). 
• Peter Dillingham and David Fletcher. Estimating the ability of birds to sustain additional human-caused mortalities using a simple decision rule and allometric relationships. Biological Conservation 141: 1783-1792 (2008).
• Mike Conroy, Richard Barker, Peter Dillingham, David Fletcher, Andrew Gormley and Ian Westbrooke. Application of decision theory to conservation management: recovery of Hector’s dolphin. Wildlife Research 35: 93–102 (2008). 
• Chris Burridge, Dave Craw, David Fletcher and Jonathan Waters. Geological dates and molecular rates: fish DNA sheds light on time-dependency. Molecular Biology and Evolution 25: 624–633 (2008). 
• Darren Scott, Paul Scofield, Christine Hunter and David Fletcher. Decline of sooty shearwaters, puffinus griseus, on The Snares, New Zealand. Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania 142: 185-196 (2008). 
• Susan Waugh, Darryl MacKenzie and David Fletcher. Seabird bycatch in New Zealand trawl and longline fisheries, 1998-2004. Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania 142: 45-66 (2008). 
• Jamie Newman, Darren Scott, Henrik Moller and David Fletcher. A population and harvest intensity estimate for sooty shearwater, puffinus griseus, on Taukihepa (Big South Cape), New Zealand. Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania 142: 177-184 (2008). 
• Sam McKechnie, David Fletcher, Henrik Moller, Darren Scott, Jamie Newman, and Corey Bragg. Estimating and correcting for bias in population assessments of sooty shearwaters. Journal of Wildlife Management 71: 1325-1335 (2007). 
• David Fletcher and Malcolm Faddy. Confidence intervals for the expected abundance of rare species. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 12: 315–324 (2007). 
• Ian Jamieson, Lisa Tracy, David Fletcher and Doug Armstrong. Moderate inbreeding depression in a reintroduced population of North Island robins. Animal Conservation 10: 95–102 (2007). 
• David Fletcher. Review of «Handbook of capture–recapture analysis» by Amstrup, McDonald and Manly. Ecology 87: 2133–2134 (2006). 
• Richard Volz, Peter Alspach, David Fletcher and Ian Ferguson. Genetic variation in bitter pit and fruit calcium concentrations within a diverse apple germplasm collection. Euphytica 149: 1-10 (2006). 
• Sam DuFresne, David Fletcher and Steve Dawson. The effect of line transect placement in a coastal distance sampling survey. Journal of Cetacean Research and Management 8: 79-85 (2006). 
• Mandy Tocher, David Fletcher and Phillip Bishop. A modelling approach to determine a translocation scenario for the endangered New Zealand frog Leiopelma hamiltoni. Herpetological Journal 16: 97-106 (2006). 
• Olivier Gimenez, Rémi Choquet, Laurent Lamor, Paul Scofield, David Fletcher, Jean-Dominique Lebreton, and Roger Pradel. Efficient Profile-Likelihood Confidence Intervals for Capture-Recapture Models. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 10: 184-196 (2005). 
• David Fletcher, Darryl MacKenzie and Eduardo Villouta. Modelling Skewed Data with Many Zeros: A Simple Approach Combining Ordinary and Logistic Regression. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 12: 45-54 (2005). 
• Sebastian Uhlmann, David Fletcher and Henrik Moller. Estimating Incidental Takes of Shearwaters in Driftnet Fisheries: Lessons for the Conservation of Seabirds. Biological Conservation 123: 151-163 (2005). 
• Euan Harvey, David Fletcher, Mark Shortis and Gary Kendrick. A comparison of underwater visual distance estimates made by SCUBA divers and a stereo-video system: implications for underwater visual census of reef fish abundance. Marine and Freshwater Research 55: 573-580 (2004). 
• Jonathan Yearsley, David Fletcher and Christine Hunter. Sensitivity Analysis of Equilibrium Population Size in a Density-Dependent Model for Short-Tailed Shearwaters. Ecological Modelling 163: 119-129 (2003). 
• Chris Jones, Susan Bettany, Henrik Moller, David Fletcher, Phil Lyver, and Justine de Cruz. Burrow occupancy and productivity at coastal sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) breeding colonies, South Island, New Zealand: can mark-recapture be used to estimate burrowscope accuracy? Wildlife Research 30: 377-388 (2003). 
• David Fletcher, Steve Dawson and Elisabeth Slooten. Designing a Mark-Recapture Study to Allow for Local Emigration. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 7: 586-593 (2002). 
• Euan Harvey, David Fletcher and Mark Shortis. Estimation of reef fish length by divers and by stereo-video. A first comparison of the accuracy and precision in the field on living fish under operational conditions. Fisheries Research 57: 255-265 (2002). 
• Jonathan Yearsley and David Fletcher. Equivalence relationships between stage-structured population models. Mathematical Biosciences 179: 131-143 (2002). 
• David Fletcher and Tony Underwood. How to Cope with Negative Estimates of Variance Components in Ecological Field Studies. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 273: 89-95 (2002). 
• Richard Barker, David Fletcher and Paul Scofield. Measuring density dependence in survival from mark-recapture data. Journal of Applied Statistics 29: 305-313 (2002). 
• Richard Cuthbert, David Fletcher and Lloyd Davis. A sensitivity analysis of Hutton’s shearwater: prioritizing conservation research and management. Biological Conservation 100: 163-172 (2001). 
• Peter Moore, David Fletcher and Jacinda Amey. Population estimates of Yellow-eyed Penguin Megadyptes antipodes on Campbell Island, 1987-1998. Emu 101: 225-236 (2001). 
• Euan Harvey, David Fletcher and Mark Shortis. A Comparison of the Precision and Accuracy of Estimates of Reef Fish Length Made by Divers and a Stereo-Video System. Fishery Bulletin 99:63-71 (2001). 
• Euan Harvey, David Fletcher and Mark Shortis. Improving the statistical power of length estimates of reef fish: a comparison of estimates determined visually by divers with estimates produced by a stereo-video system. Fisheries Bulletin 99:72–80 (2001). 
• Paul Scofield, David Fletcher and Christopher Robertson. Titi (Sooty Shearwaters) on Whero Island: An analysis of historic banding data using modern capture-recapture techniques. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 6:268-280 (2001). 
• Ilka Sohle, Henrik Moller, David Fletcher and Christopher Robertson. Telemetry reduces colony attendance by sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus). New Zealand Journal of Zoology 27: 367-373 (2000). 
• Christine Hunter, Henrik Moller and David Fletcher. Parameter Uncertainty and Elasticity Analyses of a Population Model: Setting Research Priorities for Shearwaters. Ecological Modelling 134: 299-323 (2000). 
• Elisabeth Slooten, David Fletcher and Barbara Taylor. Taking Account of Uncertainty in Management: Is Hector’s Dolphin at Risk due to Mortality in Gillnet Fisheries? Conservation Biology 14: 1264-1270 (2000). 
• Hiltrun Ratz, Henrik Moller and David Fletcher. Predator identification from bite marks on penguin and albatross chicks. Marine Ornithology 27: 149-156 (1999).
• David Fletcher, Henrik Moller and Kay Clapperton. Spotlight counts for assessing abundance of rabbits. Wildlife Research 26: 609-620 (1999). 
• Claire Cameron, Richard Barker, David Fletcher, Elisabeth Slooten and Stephen Dawson. Modelling Survival of Hector’s Dolphins around Banks Peninsula, New Zealand. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 4: 126-135 (1999). 
• Derek Holton, Julie Anderson, Bronwen Thomas and David Fletcher. Mathematical Problem Solving in Support of the Curriculum? International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology 30: 351-371 (1999). 
• Nick Gales and David Fletcher. Abundance, distribution and status of the New Zealand sea lion. Wildlife Research 26: 35-52 (1999). 
• Lars Bejder, David Fletcher and Stefan Bräger. Testing association patterns of a social mammal: Do Hector’s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus hectori) associate non-randomly? Animal Behaviour 56: 719-725 (1998). 
• Bryan Manly, Allyson Seyb and David Fletcher. Fisheries By-catch Monitoring and Control. In Statistics in Ecology and Environmental Monitoring II: Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Biology. Otago University Press (1998) 121-130.
• David Fletcher, Laimonis Kavalieris and Bryan F.J. Manly (Editors). Statistics in Ecology and Environmental Monitoring. II: Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Biology. Otago University Press (1998) pp220. [ISSN 1170 3237]
• Henrik Moller, Kay Clapperton and David Fletcher. Density of rabbits in the Mackenzie Basin, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 21: 161-167 (1997). 
• David Fletcher and Raymond Webster. Skewness-corrected confidence intervals for stratified random samples. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 1: 120-130 (1996). 
• David Fletcher. A mark-recapture model in which sighting probability depends on the number of sightings on the previous occasion. In Statistics in Ecology and Environmental Monitoring. Otago University Press (1994) 105-110. 
• David Fletcher and Bryan F.J. Manly (Editors). Statistics in Ecology and Environmental Monitoring. Otago University Press (1994) 269pp. [ISSN 1170 3237]
• Rizaldi Boer, Lindsay Campbell and David Fletcher. Characteristics of frost in a major wheat-growing region of Australia. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 44: 1731-1743 (1993). 
• Rizaldi Boer, David Fletcher and Lindsay Campbell. Rainfall patterns in a major wheat-growing region of Australia. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 44: 609-624 (1993). 
• David Fletcher, Susan Lewis and John Matthews. Factorial designs for crossover clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 9: 1121-1129 (1990).
• Richard Sibly, H. Nott and David Fletcher. Splitting behaviour into bouts. Animal Behaviour 39: 63-69 (1990).
• Susan Lewis, David Fletcher and John Matthews. 1988. Factorial cross-over designs in clinical trials. In Optimal Design and Analysis of Experiments. Dodge, Y., Fedorov, V. V. and Wynn, H.P. (Eds.) Elsevier Science (North-Holland). pp 133-140.
• David Fletcher, M.A. Hanson, P.J. Moore, J. G. Nijhuis and M.J. Parkes. Stimulation of breathing movements by L5-hydroxytryptophan in fetal sheep during normoxia and hypoxia. Journal of Physiology 404: 575-589 (1988).
• David Fletcher. A new class of change-over designs for factorial experiments. Biometrika 74: 649-54 (1987). 
• David Fletcher and Nye John. Changeover designs and factorial structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B47: 117-124 (1985